Friday, February 24, 2012
STAMPEDERS & WOLVERINES: Breaking Down The Math
Down to the wire indeed!
The Swan Valley Stampeders and Wayway Wolverines are both in action tonight on the road. If the playoff race is decided by night's end, it'll mean it's the Stamps off to the post season. If it's not, that means the Wolverines will have everyone's fate in their hands as they wrap up the season tomorrow night at home against Dauphin, while the Stamps will be forced to watch the online boxscore with pure agony or joy by the end of the night.
Right now, the Stampeders hold the cards. Win, and they're in.
In the simplest terms, the Wolverines need, not just as many, but MORE points in their game tonight than the Stampeders get in theirs to still be alive by tomorrow. If they get the same, or less, it's over. Remember Swan holds the tie-breaker, for winning 5 of the 9 head to head meetings with Wayway.
Swan Valley @ Dauphin
Wayway @ Neepawa
- If Swan wins in Dauphin: Swan clinches, Wayway's out, regardless what they do in Neepawa.
- If Swan loses in regulation in Dauphin: Wayway's out if they lose in regulation, but an OT or SO loss would keep them alive, as would, obviously, a win.
- If Swan loses in overtime or a shootout in Dauphin: Wayway would have to WIN in Neepawa. 2 points, no less.
Dauphin @ Wayway
If the first option happens (Swan wins in Dauphin), Saturday's Dauphin @ Wayway game means nothing (except maybe the league pennant for the Kings, but nothing for Wayway/Swan).
So let's skip that one.
- If Wayway gets TWO more points than Swan on Friday (they win, Swan loses in regulation, leaving the two teams tied), all Wayway would have to do is get through regulation on Saturday tied, and would make the playoffs regardless, even with an OT/SO loss. So all that CAN'T happen for them is regulation loss.
- If Wayway gets ONE more point than Swan did on Friday (Swan loses in OT, Wayway wins / Wayway loses in OT / Swan loses in regulation, leaving Wayway 1 point back), then Wayway can afford nothing short of a win Saturday against Dauphin to get in.
But... let's let Friday take care of itself first. Make as much sense as the picture above, or more like....