I've never been shy about being a sports and numbers nerd but the CFL's West Division standings and the rollercoaster ride of the Saskatchewan Roughriders specifically has brought my geek squad mentality to another level these last few weeks. I've actually never successfully used Microsoft Excel until this year at work for tracking monthly income and expenses and found it fun to play around, so I put the Grade 9 computer class tool to use for sports too, so I can see specifically the West Division standings and each teams' remaining schedules all in one easy spot.
I've also been a long-suffering Rider fan and come to expect the worst when the going gets tough, so I had very little hope that they'd go into Calgary and win this past Saturday. After their performance in Winnipeg seven days earlier, with Charleston Hughes staying home, being on the road in Calgary after the Stampeders put up a rare loss the week before, the cards were against them going in. With that recent downward momentum (one game, but a bad one), and Winnipeg on the upswing (slapped the Riders and Esks, were up big in Ottawa and pulled it out in overtime), I was starting to lean towards the Riders quite possibly dropping their final two games, the Bombers winning theirs and jumping into 2nd place.
With the Bombers on their bye week, the Rider win in Calgary already means the Bombers will be on the road IF they make the playoffs, as they can't finish any higher than 3rd. The only team standing between the Riders and home field are the BC Lions, their opponent this coming Saturday. Again, a hot opponent who won in Calgary two weeks ago and rolled past Edmonton last week. While the Riders need to lose their final game and BC needs to 'win out' in their final two, it's also not very far-fetched. The Lions have their destiny in their hands this week going head to head in Regina, and if they're successful there, they'll have Calgary at in BC next week, and they'd be facing a Stamps' team that's already clinched 1st (even if they lost in Winnipeg) due to the Rider loss, so the Lions would be at home against a team with nothing to play for. I really think a loss this weekend would send the Riders on the road, to BC for the West Semi.
It's a lot more simple if the Riders can just take care of business on home field, and with a 5-3 mark at home, they need to shine up that record a little. If they win, they lock up no worse than 2nd. By then they will know Friday's Calgary @ Winnipeg result, so if Calgary won, 2nd is the best the Riders can be. A Stamps loss and Rider win this weekend, then the Riders head into their Week 21 bye week where they'll watch the Stampeders in BC, and should Calgary inconceivably lose a fourth straight, the Riders & Stamps would both be 12-6, Riders with the 2-1 season-season tie-breaker, and hosting the West Final (with 22 days between games).
I know, you don't want two byes weeks back to back before a big West final. Sorry. If someone handed you a pen and blank standings and you could fill it out however you want and you don't put your team 1st in the CFL playoff format, you're crazy.
Route 1 to the Grey Cup (finish 3rd): Go to BC, win, go to Calgary, win (good luck)
Route 2 to the Grey Cup (finish 2nd): Host red-hot BC or red-hot Winnipeg, win, go to Calgary, win (possible, sure)
Route 3 to the Grey Cup (finish 1st): Win one home game. (Let Calgary host red-hot Winnipeg or red-hot BC and you play the winner at your place).
If you don't pick option 3, I don't know about you.
Let Naaman Roosevelt and Dan Clark get healthy and make the most of two weeks off.
Yes, odds are the West Final is in Calgary but everything's on the table.
I'm also really interested in what's going on in Winnipeg. Two or three (mostly one) of their fans drive me absolutely nuts on Twitter but more than that, the Bombers scare me. If Matt Nichols just doesn't screw things up, they've got Andrew Harris to run the rock when it's cold and an active defense led by Adam Bighill, and yes the 31-0 game is fresh in my mind. I'd rather not see them in the playoffs, I'd rather not see them go East and become the first West team to go to the Grey Cup. I'd be just fine seeing them miss, to quiet the peanut gallery but also keep a heckuva obstacle out of the picture. If they make the playoffs they can certainly win the Grey Cup. But they can miss and I'd even say there's a half decent chance. They've got Calgary Friday with the Stamps staring at a potential 3 game losing streak and a chance to clinch. Calgary doesn't want 1st coming down to Week 21 in BC and are they really going to lose three in a row? If the Bombers drop that home game, it gives the Edmonton Eskimos (bye this week) life - it would mean the Week 21 game, Winnipeg @ Edmonton, decide who goes East and who misses the playoffs. Edmonton at home, with a breath of life, with the Grey Cup at Commonwealth.
So Friday, do you hope for the Bombers so that the Riders keep the 1st place dream alive for at least one more day? Or do you pull for the Stampeders (who would clinch the division) to put the Blue Bombers on the ropes and force them to win in Edmonton or finish dead last at 9-9 (tied with Edmonton but Esks would have tie-break). Not sure I'll truly know how I feel until that game gets going. Either way that one turns out, it will ratchet up the drama for the next day and next week because it's the next domino to fall in this crazy West Division playoff picture.
Quickly about the Rider offense... first off how weird was it seeing a big-ish running back in Cam Marshall and a defensive halfback in Louchiez Purifoy returning kick-offs, and doing it well! They set up the Riders routinely at the 40-45, even in Stamps territory. We also saw some big YAC yards by Kyran Moore and Jordan Williams-Lambert in what were short-medium passes. My favourite part of the 29-point effort was that Collaros was throwing the ball on a rope, zipping it in there. His tosses have looked slow-mo for much of the year so that showed increased confidence by him on Saturday. The next interesting debate is at running back and I don't know how you take Marshall out after that one. He had 2 or 3 carries for 12-15 yards each, finished with 11-76 (6.9 avg). But my favourite Marshall play wasn't one of his runs or kick returns. It was a block that I didn't notice until re-watching the game. It was one of those late penalties that put the Riders in a 2nd and 16 while trying to drain the clock. The Stamps rushed six guys and an extra linebacker came around the left side of the O-line. Marshall was lined up to Collaros' right in the shotgun and he stepped to his left, pancaked the dude and Zach stepped up and found Williams-Lambert right at the stick.
Mason and Thigpen don't give you that dimension, and since they're both smaller faster backs, I wonder if one of them sits if all three are healthy, and with Thigpen giving you the versatility in the return game, Mason could be the odd man out, despite being the starter much of the year. Marshall's style just screams "playoff back" and the pass protection puts him over the top in my opinion.
Hey, have fun watching some football this weekend!
Quickly about the Rider offense... first off how weird was it seeing a big-ish running back in Cam Marshall and a defensive halfback in Louchiez Purifoy returning kick-offs, and doing it well! They set up the Riders routinely at the 40-45, even in Stamps territory. We also saw some big YAC yards by Kyran Moore and Jordan Williams-Lambert in what were short-medium passes. My favourite part of the 29-point effort was that Collaros was throwing the ball on a rope, zipping it in there. His tosses have looked slow-mo for much of the year so that showed increased confidence by him on Saturday. The next interesting debate is at running back and I don't know how you take Marshall out after that one. He had 2 or 3 carries for 12-15 yards each, finished with 11-76 (6.9 avg). But my favourite Marshall play wasn't one of his runs or kick returns. It was a block that I didn't notice until re-watching the game. It was one of those late penalties that put the Riders in a 2nd and 16 while trying to drain the clock. The Stamps rushed six guys and an extra linebacker came around the left side of the O-line. Marshall was lined up to Collaros' right in the shotgun and he stepped to his left, pancaked the dude and Zach stepped up and found Williams-Lambert right at the stick.
The yards were great but this is why you just can’t take @Cam_Marshall32 out of the lineup. pic.twitter.com/L9JItv105h— Craig Stein (@craigstein14) October 24, 2018
Mason and Thigpen don't give you that dimension, and since they're both smaller faster backs, I wonder if one of them sits if all three are healthy, and with Thigpen giving you the versatility in the return game, Mason could be the odd man out, despite being the starter much of the year. Marshall's style just screams "playoff back" and the pass protection puts him over the top in my opinion.
Hey, have fun watching some football this weekend!
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