Thursday, September 25, 2014
BOOK IT: THERE WILL BE A CROSSOVER
Call me Captain Obvious, but despite Week 13 in the CFL showing that the East Division indeed has a pulse, there's no way that three teams from that division are taking part in the playoffs.
There's a CFL podcast that's gaining some steam, called the Swag & Stagger Show. It's actually really well put-together. It features a pair of Bomber fans and a Stampeder fan, none of whom have a whole lot of love for the Saskatchewan Roughriders (understandably so), and all three are big time fans of the league who are all very well-spoken and knowledgeable about Canadian pigskin.
CHECK THEM OUT
In addition to their weekly 45-ish minute banter session, they also do a separate one specifically for CFL Fantasy, and the www.fantaseh.ca site, which I've taken part in every year it's been out (and usually dominate :p)
These guys know their stuff, and rosters, but alarm bells did go off for me when they actually made an argument that the East Division is turning things around, and because they're now playing more in-division games, that there's a good chance they'll block a western cross-over.
I understand this argument may have come on the fly, and they sounded good making the argument, and maybe it was simply just done for argument sake, but it's just simply not happening.
I know us Saskatchewan folk have trouble with math, and counting (right?), but I think this math is pretty simple.
The top three teams in the East are tied with 4 wins each. The fourth place team in the East (B.C., currently), has 7. That means three teams in the East need to finish with at least the same amount of wins as the Lions (or whoever ends up 4th)… so they need three more wins that B.C. gets in their last 6 games. Odds are, the Lions aren't going to lose out (granted, they've got a tough schedule aside from Ottawa at home). Let's say they go a sub-par 2-4 down the stretch. That leaves them at 9-9. That would mean that THREE teams in the East have to go 5-1 in their last 6 games to tie the Lions. Because they play each other so much, it just isn't possible.
Taking this a step further, I believe the 3rd place team in the East that will be on the outside looking in will be Montreal. Their schedule's not bad. Five East opponents including two Ottawa, and home to the Riders (Riders don't usually perform well in these Sunday morning Eastern timezone games). I just think Hamilton's starting to roll with Collaros at the helm (and they actually have 7 games left, a game in hand on everyone), and once Toronto's healthy, Ricky Ray will have them in one of the top two spots. Montreal will likely be in the neighbourhood of 7-11, maybe 8-10 at best. If that's the case, B.C. needs two wins to stay ahead of them, or Winnipeg would need three.
Hey, maybe the Lions and Bombers hit the skids, and maybe Toronto-Hamilton-Montreal beat each other just the right number of times that they somehow all finish with 8 or 9 wins, but it's just way too many things that have to go right in the last third of the schedule.