Thursday, March 12, 2009

GX94 Playoff Preview: Mils (37-16-3= 77) vs Red Wings (38-16-2= 78)

A single point was all that separated these two Sher-Wood Conference rivals in the regular season. And when you think about missed opportunities to get that top spot if you're Melville... the Mils tied or won the season series against every SJHL team... EXCEPT... Notre Dame... and Battleford. The Hounds were last in the Sher-Wood. The Stars finished 5th in the Itech. One more win against either of those teams and this series is starting in Melville. But, that's not the way it finished, and, had the Mils finished first, we wouldn't have just enjoyed a first round seven game series between Melville and Yorkton. Instead, Weyburn would have played the Terriers in the Conference Semi, while the Mils would have faced Kindersley. Who knows how those would have ended up. Heck, maybe the Mils and Terriers would have met THIS round. Or, maybe they'd both be eliminated. Never know. This time of year, there's no time for 'what ifs', and the Millionaires actually tend to play quite well in the Red Wings' barn, the newly named Crescent Point Place.

Melville's Leaders (Regular Season)
Points: Daniel Hope (63), Levi Lind (60), Kale Dolinski/Logan Herauf (50)
Goals: Hope (28), Lind (24), Dolinski (22), Herauf/Shane Stanicky (19)
Assists: Lind (36), Hope (35), Herauf (31), Tyler Murray (30)
Defenseman Points: Jordan Reeve/Casey Dion (21), Austin Krahenbil/Curtis Beech (16)

(Playoffs)
Points: Lind (6), Kelly Friesen/Michael Jordan/Dolinski (5)
Goals: Lind (4), Jordan (3)
Assists: Dolinski, Matt Kinnunen, Reeve (4)
Defenseman Points: Reeve (4)

Weyburn's Leaders (Regular Season)
Points: Preston Shupe (80), Rhett Bly (70), Torrey Lindsay (68) *Tyler Penny had 16 pts in 12 GP
Goals: Shupe (36), Bly (27), Brayden Nargang (26), Lindsay (23)
Assists: Lindsay (45), Shupe (44), Bly (43)
Defenseman Points: Rhys Thomas (27), *Justin Favreau had 23 pts in 27 GP.

(Playoffs)
Points: Bly (6), Nargang (5), Kyle Johnson, Shupe, Shawn Cowie, Lindsay, Sam Graham (4)
Goals: Bly/Johnson (3), Nargang/Shupe (2)
Assists: Lindsay (4)
Defenseman Points: Thomas (3)

Season Series:
The Mils dominated the head-to-head matchups early on, winning each of the first four games, three of them by 4-1 scores, while the other was a 2-1 final, giving up just 4 goals in those four games. However their last win against Weyburn was way back on November 19th. Weyburn won the last two meetings, and it's certainly worth noting that the Wings did not have D Justin Favreau or F Tyler Penny for any of those four wins. Favreau's one of the top blueliners in the league, and only played less than half a season in Weyburn since a trade from Nanaimo of the BCHL. Penny picked up points in 9 of his 12 games with his hometown Red Wings after he was re-assigned by the WHL's Red Deer Rebels. He finished with 16 regular season points. I look at Favreau as a possible X-factor in this series. While the Mils might be deeper from 1-6 on defense, I don't think they have anyone quite as good as Favreau is offensively. The Mils' backend also took a hit when they lost Kirk Mastad for the season in the Yorkton series. Look for Justin Hollinger, Craig Karius, and maybe Terrence Jorgenson to rotate in a little the rest of the way. Hollinger played Games 6 and 7 of the Yorkton series and didn't look out of place. Karius suited up in Game 2. In 6 games this season, Melville out-scored Weyburn 18-12.

Head-to-Head Numbers

Melville
Matt Kinnunen 5G-2A-7P
Daniel Hope 3G-3A-6P
Kale Dolinski 3G-3A-6P

D- Casey Dion 1-0-1 in 1 GP

Weyburn
Torey Lindsay 1G-7A-8P
Preston Shupe 4G-3A-8P
Brayden Nargang 2G-3A-5P

D- Matt McNamee 0-3-3 in 3 GP

Between the Pipes
This could be the biggest key, especially for the Mils. Travis Bosch was outstanding against Weyburn this season, while Weyburn's A.J. Whiffen was just ok... he seems to have regained his form which earned him Rookie of the Year last season since then though.

Melville
#34 Travis Bosch: 29-16-3, 2.36 GAA, .928%, 1 SO
#35 Brady Wilyman: 3-0, 3.41, .882%, 1 SO

Bosch in Playoffs
4-3, 2.08, .935

Bosch vs Weyburn
4-2, 1.68, .945

Weyburn
#1 A.J. Whiffen: 24-11-2, 3.08 GAA, .907%, 1 SO
#30 Tanner Erickson: 14-5, 3.33 GAA, .886%

Whiffen in Playoffs
4-0, 2.05, .914

Whiffen vs Melville
3-2, 3.00, .912

Red Wings... Rested or Rusted?
By time they drop the puck on Friday night, the Red Wings will have played just 4 games in the last 26 days. Although they showed no signs of rust after 2 weeks off when they played Kindersley, sweeping the Klippers 4-straight. Melville's gotta try to beat a team that hasn't even lost 4 games in the calendar year. The Red Wings are 13-2-1 in 2009, 17-2-1 if you include the playoffs. Interestingly enough, 13-2-1 is 16 games, which is the exact amount of time the Wings have had Justin Favreau. They've only lost twice since he joined them at New Years. Yikes. But, I think despite being on the road, the first 5-10 minutes of Friday's game is a big key for Melville. They're coming off an exciting Game 7 win over Yorkton, and they do have a couple days off, and maybe they can jump on a Weyburn team that hasn't been on the ice a lot in the last month. I'm expecting another long series. The winner plays either Humboldt or Flin Flon in for the Credit Union Cup, for the right to represent the SJHL in the Anavet Cup.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Should be a really good series.
Could go the full 7, both teams are fairly well matched.
If the Wings get to Bosch though, It could be alot shorter series.
He is an awsome goaltender. But watch out for all 4 Wing lines, they can all strike fast.

Anonymous said...

Wings are just getting all the dust off from their layoff, they'll be firing on all cylinders next game.

Craig Stein said...

they weren't the least bit rusty. they could have just as easily won.

Anonymous said...

I didn't say rusty, just getting the dust off, Yes they could have just as easily won. Weyburn clearly outplayed the Mils, but didn't get the bounces in the end.
Bosch is very good, but can't carry them forever.
Any team takes the better part of a game to get back into it after a long layoff.
Just my opinion.